NEW EPISODE: Betting on Chaos

Prediction market trader Domer

Domer, a prominent prediction market trader and one of the biggest bettors on Polymarket, shares his journey from Intrade to PredictIt and finally to Polymarket. He discusses the rollercoaster of the 2024 election, detailing both highs—like backing Kamala Harris before President Joe Biden withdrew from the race—and lows, such as being short on Trump on election night. Domer also delves into unraveling the mystery of the "French Whale."

Links: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Direct

Some of the themes from the episode harken to other past episodes, including:

• The birth of modern betting exchanges - Bert Black was the founder of Betfair.

• Betting on binary events - Jason Strasser’s Caption Partners is an options market maker that focuses on binary events that they think electronic market makers will struggle to price.

• We covered the Twitter merger, which was another event based bet.

• Bill Ziemba talked about horse racing, where making money on the rebate is a key component of the total return.

I mention in the episode that I've been working on radically streamlining the show's production to ensure its sustainability. More posts on this progress will follow. In line with this, supporting the show can be done by subscribing to the premium version of this newsletter. Over time, the past episode archive will move behind a paywall, and I'm exploring ways to enhance the premium newsletter offering. This shift is necessary as continuing the show solely as a passion project/hobby is not sustainable.

My sincere thanks to all listeners who have already subscribed; your support is deeply appreciated.