If you actually go to a casino's roulette table, you'll see a load of degenerates shovelling chips onto black in order to double down and hope they can make back their losses.
You describe of course, recency bias. It’s extremely hard to overcome with 10 spins coming up red on the roulette wheel. It’s even harder to overcome for a whole generation of investors under 40 that have only seen “number go up and to the right” for 90% of their investing life. And to get those returns, they just needed to be in the Magnificent 7 or any index dominated by those 7.
Yes and also we will change from time to time which stocks are contained in the "obvious" basket. At one time the obvious basket included: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google. And then depending on our needs we might turn the spigot on that basket until it includes all of QQQ. Although... generally it is much easier to come up with this Goldilocks strategy in hindsight.
If you actually go to a casino's roulette table, you'll see a load of degenerates shovelling chips onto black in order to double down and hope they can make back their losses.
You describe of course, recency bias. It’s extremely hard to overcome with 10 spins coming up red on the roulette wheel. It’s even harder to overcome for a whole generation of investors under 40 that have only seen “number go up and to the right” for 90% of their investing life. And to get those returns, they just needed to be in the Magnificent 7 or any index dominated by those 7.
Yes and also we will change from time to time which stocks are contained in the "obvious" basket. At one time the obvious basket included: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google. And then depending on our needs we might turn the spigot on that basket until it includes all of QQQ. Although... generally it is much easier to come up with this Goldilocks strategy in hindsight.